Could Japan be the World Cup's dark horses?

Japan went undefeated against European opponents at the previous World Cup, overcoming Germany and Spain in the group phase and tying with Croatia (1-1) in the round of 16 before exiting on penalties.

Published 5 hours ago

Every World Cup features at least one squad that beats the odds and becomes the tournament's surprise contender.

Just consider Morocco, Russia, and Costa Rica—three nations that have all mounted remarkable runs deep into the knockout rounds in recent years, despite low expectations entering the competition.

With the World Cup now expanded from 32 to 48 teams, there seems to be more potential dark horses than ever before.

However, few countries look more primed for an unexpected and prolonged run than Japan, whose combination of individual talent, recent performance, and overall experience makes them one of the most compelling underdogs in the event.

In 2022, the Samurai Blue beat both Germany and Spain to finish atop Group E and reach the first knockout stage.

But it was not meant to be. Instead, Japan experienced familiar disappointment as they were ousted in the round of 16 for the fourth time, following a penalty shootout loss to Croatia.

Now, four years later, as they get set for their opening match against the Netherlands on Sunday night (21:00 BST), there is increasing confidence that this could be the most successful of Japan's eight World Cup appearances.

Sweden and Tunisia round out Group F, and Japan currently holds a nine-match unbeaten streak against European teams.

Former Southampton defender Maya Yoshida believes the 26-man roster selected by manager Hajime Moriyasu is capable of reaching uncharted territory in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

Yoshida, 37, who captained Japan in 2022, has accompanied the squad to this tournament as a non-playing "support player" to offer leadership behind the scenes.

"For me, making the quarter-finals—a stage we've never reached or even experienced before—is the primary objective," Yoshida told BBC Sport. "Anything beyond that would be a bonus."

'My aim is for the team to be among the best of the best'

Yoshida is not the only one setting high expectations for Japan.

Earlier this year, Moriyasu stated he had his sights set on guiding Japan to World Cup triumph this summer.

"My aim is for the team to be among the best of the best," Moriyasu told World Soccer Magazine before the tournament. "We have raised our level gradually through our national team activities.

"For me, the challenge is to get the best out of the players. We do have many injuries, but we have also shown that we have the squad to perform at our best regardless of who plays."

It is no surprise the 57-year-old is so assured in the players at his disposal, which includes Daichi Kamada of Crystal Palace and Ao Tanaka of Leeds United.

They helped Japan become the first non-host nation to secure their place at this summer's finals following a nearly flawless qualifying campaign.

"Nineteen of the 26 players in Qatar were at their first World Cup," added Moriyasu. "They formed the core of our team for the Asian qualifiers this time around—and they have aimed high from the start.

"They have had winning the World Cup in their sights throughout this period, and also kept the mindset of continuously improving toward that goal."

But Japan have impressed beyond just Asian qualifying. Since their exit at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, they have beaten two of Europe's highest-ranked teams—England and Germany—as well as Brazil.

Yoshida believes Japan's capacity to contend with some of Fifa's top-ranked nations is driven by the growing number of players regularly featuring in Europe's top five leagues.

"Of course, now more players play in Europe, especially at high-level European competitions," said Yoshida, who earned 127 caps.

"At the start, I was at VVV Venlo, a bottom-tier Dutch league team, which was very good for me as a first step, but times have changed now. Japanese players' reputation is much higher.

"So now, on a daily or weekly basis, every player competes with or against World Cup-level players.

"That experience makes a huge difference. That's the main thing for me. But we shouldn't forget that that path was started by older players like [Shunsuke] Nakamura, [Hidetoshi] Nakata, Shinji Ono.

"These guys opened the door, and our generation began to go through, and now the door is even wider."

Who else could be a dark horse at the World Cup?

Japan are not the only team capable of springing a surprise at this summer's World Cup.

Alongside the Samurai Blue, Mexico, Ecuador, Turkey, and South Korea have all been tipped as outsiders to watch over the next five weeks.

"I am not sure Ecuador will score enough goals with 36-year-old Enner Valencia leading their line, but they are one of my picks, along with Japan," former England striker Chris Sutton told BBC Sport.

"I became a bit of a celebrity in Japan when I correctly backed them to beat Germany at the last World Cup, or at least I appeared on TV there to talk about it anyway.

"They have some excellent technical players and will be dangerous, whoever they face."

Former Scotland international Rachel Corsie also highlighted Turkey as a team to watch.

"Turkey could be tricky for some, and I don't know if this is really a surprise, but I think Japan could go beyond where their world ranking of 18 suggests," she said.

Former England and Manchester City defender Stephen Houghton backed Moriyasu's side to emerge as one of the competition's dark horses.

"I really liked the way they played at Wembley," she said.