Rob is senior football editor at GiveMeSport, with over 15 years experience covering sport in various capacities since graduating from the University of Gloucestershire in 2008 with a degree in journalism. A childhood obsession for all things football developed into a career writing about the beautiful game, initially producing content for clients including Luton Town Football Club and the PGMOL. His first big interviews were with Premier League referees Howard Webb and Michael Oliver in 2009. He then spent four years producing written content for a betting website, mainly focusing on football, and was there to cover various games and tournaments including the 2010 World Cup and Euro 2012. Rob joined GiveMeSport in 2013 (initially as a sub-editor before becoming a senior writer and then senior editor in 2020) and has covered countless football matches and other sporting events, interviewed various high-profile figures including Rio Ferdinand, Peter Crouch and Theo Walcott, and written well over 10,000 articles during that time. Rob has played a key role in GiveMeSport's coverage of the World Cups in 2014, 2018 and 2022, plus Euro 2016, Euro 2020 and Euro 2024, along with many Champions League finals. While football is Rob's area of expertise, he has also covered a wide range of other sports during his time at GiveMeSport including boxing, tennis and darts, as well as the 2016, 2020 and 2024 Olympic Games.
Will Lionel Scaloni's Argentina become the first team since Brazil in 1962 to successfully defend their World Cup crown this summer? The showpiece international tournament is now firmly underway and what a start it's been.
The three host countries – the United States, Canada and Mexico – have all put on a spectacle so far, while the likes of England, France, Argentina and Spain are among the favourites to go all the way.
All eyes are now on who will be the team standing on the podium at the MetLife Stadium, New Jersey, on July 19. Will it be the reigning champions or will there be a new champion in town? Opta's Supercomputer has updated its stats following the group stage, listing the remaining 32 teams' chances of going all the way.
32-21
The third-smallest nation to ever qualify for the World Cup, Cape Verde, have a miniscule chance (0.03%) of going all the way, despite going unbeaten in a tough group featuring Spain and Uruguay. They will need a minor miracle to beat reigning champions Argentina in the last 32.
Also with a near-impossible chance of achieving the utterly unthinkable are African duo DR Congo and South Africa. DR Congo have been drawn to face England in the last 32, while South Africa's reward for finishing second in Group A is a tie against co-hosts, Canada.
Austria and Bosnia both scraped through to the knockout rounds, with the former side scoring a 96th minute equaliser against Algeria to stay in the competition. Both nations are being given very little chance of going all the way, as have Paraguay (0.11%).
Ivory Coast will compete in the knockout rounds after finishing second in Group E. The Elephants, who will take on Norway in the last 32, have been given a 0.24% chance of winning the competition, just higher than Algeria.
Ghana defied the odds to draw against England, a result which sealed their place in the knockout rounds of the competition. The Supercomputer doesn't think they will go much further, though, after they were drawn to play Colombia. Sweden have been given a slightly better chance of becoming world champions for the first time but, if they want to do so, they will have to beat France in the last 32.
Australia opened their campaign up with an impressive 2-0 victory over Turkey but their chances of lifting the trophy on July 19 took a hit when they were beaten by the USA in their second group game. They will compete in the last 32 after drawing against Paraguay.
Mohamed Salah, widely regarded as one of the best African players of all time thanks to his final third exploits, is a player who dreams of lifting the biggest trophies on the planet – but the World Cup is, perhaps, a step too far for his Egypt side. That said, a 1-1 draw against Belgium in their opening match was respectable. Salah then inspired the Pharoahs to a 3-1 win against New Zealand, before they drew 1-1 with Iran to finish the group in second. A tie against Australia awaits.
30-21 – Opta Supercomputer Predicts 2026 World Cup
Chance of Winning (%)
32.
0.03%
31.
0.04%
30.
0.05%
29.
0.10%
28.
Bosnia & Herzovogina
0.10%
27.
0.11%
26.
0.21%
25.
0.24%
24.
0.28%
23.
0.29%
22.
0.34%
21.
0.44%
20-11
Even the most ardent supporters of Jesse Marsch-led Canada – the least likely host nation to win the tournament – would struggle to put together a compelling case to suggest anything special could happen. However, they've been given a chance of 0.51% of reigning triumphant after finishing second in Group B, setting up a last 32 tie with South Africa.
Albeit in a friendly, Pape Thiaw's Senegal are one of only two nations to beat England since Thomas Tuchel's appointment last year – and they have a squad packed to the brim with talent: Iliman Ndiaye, Sadio Mane, Malick Diouf spring to mind. The Lions of Teranga lost their opening two Group I matches against France and Norway but secured their progression with a crushing 5-0 win over Iraq. An intriguing encounter against Belgium awaits.
Ecuador were staring at an exit from the competition after picking up just one point from their opening two matches. Against all odds, they beat Germany 2-1 to make it to the last 32 and keep their slim chances of reigning triumphant alive.
Mexico's chances of winning the World Cup increased to 1.81% after beating South Africa in the opening match of the tournament, followed by two more wins over South Korea and Czech Republic. With a perfect record in Group A, they could be a force to be reckoned with in the knockout stages.
They have been given a greater chance than 2018 World Cup finalists Croatia, who have a 0.58% of lifting the trophy next month and Japan (1.02%).
AFCON champions Morocco (1.63%) are in 14th place following a 1-1 draw against Carlo Ancelotti's Brazil and wins over Scotland and Haiti. Although undoubtedly a top team, they will have to overcome a very tough Netherlands side in the last 32.
GIVEMESPORT Key Statistic: In 2022, Morocco became the first African team to reach the semi-final of a World Cup.
Belgium's Golden Generation has come and gone, as has been highlighted with draws against Egypt and Iran. They've been given a 1.58% chance of winning the competition, while Switzerland, who topped Group B, are handed a 2.17% chance of glory.
The USMNT looked very impressive as they hammered Paraguay 4-1 in the opening round of matches and then defeated Australia 2-0. Mauricio Pochettino's side were beaten in their third match against Turkey after fielding a weakened side but, despite that defeat, only 10 nations have a better chance than them.
20-11 – Opta Supercomputer Predicts 2026 World Cup
Chance of Winning (%)
20.
0.47%
19.
0.54%
18.
0.58%
17.
0.61%
16.
1.02%
15.
1.58%
14.
1.63%
13.
1.81%
12.
2.17%
11.
2.45%
10-1
Kicking off the top ten are Norway (4.49% chance), who scored four goals in their first match (against Iraq), with world-class striker Erling Haaland netting a brace. The prolific Manchester City star then scored two more goals as Norway defeated Senegal 3-2. Ståle Solbakken decided to make 10 changes against France to give his best players a rest. Whether the tactic pays off remains to be seen.
Colombia's chances of emerging victorious improved significantly after they finished top of Group K, above Portugal. Their reward for topping their group is a last 32 tie against Ghana.
Julian Nagelsmann's Germany have been given a 4.36% chance after topping Group E, while the Netherlands (5.11% chance) drew 2-2 with Japan before smashing Sweden 5-1 and Tunisia 3-1. At the time of writing, Ronald Koeman's side have a better chance of winning the competition than Portugal (4.74%). Roberto Martinez's side are fifth after a disappointing performance in the group stage.
It's been 24 years since five-time champions Brazil last lifted the World Cup. Vinicius Jr and co. looked reasonably impressive during the group stages, picking up seven points from a possible nine against Morocco, Haiti and Scotland.
England, Spain and France feature in the top 10.
England (9.68%) are looking to end 60 years of hurt and got their campaign off to a flying start with a 4-2 win over Croatia. A draw against Ghana and a victory over 2-0 Panama saw them top their group and set up a last 32 tie against DR Congo.
Spain (13.47%) bounced back from their disappointing 0-0 draw against Cape Verde with an emphatic 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia and a narrow 1-0 defeat of Uruguay. Lamine Yamal could make the difference for La Roja this summer.
Argentina (16.26%) are the second favourites after they won all three of their group matches. Lionel Messi scored six goals in those games, including a hat-trick in a 3-0 win against Algeria. The reigning champions are looking to become the first team to successfully defend the World Cup since Brazil in 1962.
But in pole position are France, who have so much strength in depth throughout their star-studded squad. They won all three of their group stage matches as they beat Senegal, Iraq and Norway. Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele, who both scored four goals in those three games, are in scintillating form and have the ability to inspire Les Bleus to glory.
10-1 – Opta Supercomputer Predicts 2026 World Cup
Chance of Winning (%)
10.
2.95%
3.19%
4.36%
4.74%
5.11%
6.47%
9.68%
13.47%
16.26%
18.66%
Correct as of 28/06/2026.
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